Saturday, January 19, 2008

She won??

It's getting hot. Very hot. More divisive than ever. My candidate 'won' the caucuses though perhaps not the delegate count. Things are still up in the air. Regardless, the reported voter alignment makes for interesting analysis.

Black and young voters overwhelmingly supported Obama. Black voters seem to be moving rapidly behind 'their' candidate. And youth have consistently lined up behind him, a clear trend that solidifies with every state contest.

Latinos and women overwhelmingly supported Clinton. The fact that Latinos supported Clinton despite their union lining up behind her opposition, is a huge surprise. In an open caucus in which you publicly declare whether or not you are for the union's endorsement or against it, Latinos stood up to their union and voted their conscience. I think I feel good about that but it sure may portend a dilution of the two big service unions' political power. This is important because so many service workers are Latino/Hispanic. And that demographic is the largest growing one in the country.

Women may turn out to be a wild-card in this election. The pundits and polls consistently harp on how soft Hillary's support is, especially among educated women. But women over 60 just might trump that and determine the outcome, along with Latinos. Both groups vote in high numbers.

But there is another undercurrent here that is only beginning to be gingerly discussed. There is very bad blood between Hispanics and Blacks. In my personal experience, they hate one another. The real 'race issue' here might just be the chasm between our two largest non-white ethnic groups. California is ahead....a huge Hispanic enclave. Feb 5th, here we come.

And in case anyone is wondering, yet again the turnout was huge -- over 100,000. Democrats are energized and are not staying home.

This primary season is going to be so close that we may not have a clear nominee for months. Who would have thought that? Certainly, not me.

2 comments:

  1. Hey, Gail, I really like reading your blog. So much genuine emotion and you are well-informed. I'm still backing Edwards though it seems a long shot. I have tons of respect for Hillary but have been dismayed at some of her centrist views (go along to get along, it seems). Obama really has charisma...whether he really has the chops for the job, we'll see. Hillary's other negative, in my view, is the immense amount of backlogged investigation, all ready and waiting to be revived by the Republicans. They will have an automatic headstart on tearing her to shreds.
    All that stated, whoever gets into office has a hell of a mess to contend with, and I don't envy them a bit.

    PS: how about our girl Kathleen? Rebuttal to the SOTU address--not chopped liver! She's got great things in her future. Madame VP?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hey, Gail, I really like reading your blog. So much genuine emotion and you are well-informed. I'm still backing Edwards though it seems a long shot. I have tons of respect for Hillary but have been dismayed at some of her centrist views (go along to get along, it seems). Obama really has charisma...whether he really has the chops for the job, we'll see. Hillary's other negative, in my view, is the immense amount of backlogged investigation, all ready and waiting to be revived by the Republicans. They will have an automatic headstart on tearing her to shreds.
    All that stated, whoever gets into office has a hell of a mess to contend with, and I don't envy them a bit.

    PS: how about our girl Kathleen? Rebuttal to the SOTU address--not chopped liver! She's got great things in her future. Madame VP?

    ReplyDelete